The March numbers are in, and they tell an increasingly complex story. While overall sales remain subdued: down 2.8% from last March and a striking 31.8% below the 10-year seasonal average; the data masks a slight shift. As Andrew Lis, Greater Vancouver Realtors' chief economist, observes: “While the multifamily segment continues to see slower sales, the detached segment may be awakening with sales up, and new listings down from last year.” This sounds very optimistic; however the reality is that we are seeing sales up because more sellers are realizing that the market (buyers) won't pay the prices sellers want. So if they want to move, they must let go of the value they attribute to their home if they don't want to be the only buyer for it.
I have been attending many educational and informational sessions lately to gather as much information as possible to guide my clients, especially my sellers. In addition to some great ideas from recent mastermind sessions, my favourite economist (Benjamin Tal-CIBC economist who is both to the point AND funny) has provided significant guidance on market predictions which helps me advise clients on strategy and pricing. Unfortunately, not all clients accept the current market conditions, but there seems to be a shift compared to last year which is leading to the slight increase in sales we saw last month.
The one constant factor is that time is not our friend when deciding when to reduce prices. Starting too high and waiting too long to reduce a listing price ALWAYS costs the seller money (and of course time).
We generally know if the price is too high within the first 2 weeks (if not sooner) and we should act quickly if that is the case. It is natural for homeowners to overvalue their homes; this is why when I sell my own properties, I NEVER price them myself and usually list at the lowest price that others advise. Real estate is emotional not just financial. However, in the worst market for sellers that we have seen in 30 years it is even more critical to remove emotion to maximize financial gains. It doesn't make sense to chase the prices down.
Prices are still falling; once they stabilize, we will likely see a long plateau. Experts predict recovery will take considerable time. It will likely take several years to return to the peak prices seen a few years ago.
Someone made a great point in a mastermind today. Sellers have 2 options:
1. They can hold their money in an asset that is declining in value (Benjamin Tal commented that prices are going down monthly, if not weekly) and will likely continue to decline for a while before becoming flat or seeing modest gains for many years.
2. They can cash in at the current value and move the money elsewhere. That elsewhere could mean other investments for those downsizing or into other housing that better suits the needs of those staying in the market.
The average house price in our area exceeds a million dollars. To use round numbers, a home valued at one million dollars that does not increase in value over the next five years, even if it holds its value, will yield no return on investment for the homeowner. However if the homeowner sells and invests the money, even in a low return investment, earning only 5%, they would easily earn $276,000 (annual compounding). If they have a $2 million property or earn a higher investment rate (very likely) they would of course be earning a lot more. So your $2 million property would need to go up to $2.5 in the next 5 years to match this low rate of investment return. This is very unlikely to happen over the next 5 years.
Finally, if a seller wants to move to a more expensive property, selling fast (before further price declines) and then buying up is very advantageous in this market. If everything is down 10% (the actual number is higher, but I'm using easy math here) the DOLLAR drop in a more expensive property will be more-the gap is very favourable. Additionally, in most cases, higher priced properties have decreased by a greater percentage, making the gap even more favourable for the seller who will buy up.
Alright on to the numbers.
If we look at the March 2026 numbers, last month in Greater Vancouver we saw:
- Sales of all types of properties were DOWN 2.8% from March 2025.
- Sales were 31.8% BELOW the 10-year seasonal average (2,981).
- The number of homes listed for sale was 14,774, which is UP 1.6% compared with March 2025. This is 38% higher than the 10-year average (10,704).
- The number of homes newly listed for sale was DOWN 10.3% from March 2025 but still 4.9% ABOVE the 10-year average (5,521).
- Detached home sales were UP 8.3% from March 2025.
- The benchmark price for detached homes was DOWN 8.2% when compared to March 2025, but a 1.0% INCREASE compared to February 2026.
- The sales-to-active listings ratio overall was 14.2%; for detached homes, the ratio was 11.0%. Prices face sustained downward pressure when the ratio remains below 12%.
The data reveals a market that is quietly evolving in terms of both supply and what “feels” like demand. While total inventory remains elevated at 38% above historical averages, new listings actually decreased by 10.3% compared to last March. This suggests that some sellers are choosing to wait rather than list in this softer environment, which may be helping to keep inventory levels relatively flat. As noted above, for most sellers this approach may not be optimal.
The most encouraging sign comes from the detached segment. Sales were up 8.3% year-over-year. So hopefully we will see a lot more sales in 2026 than we did in 2025 as homeowners wanting to move are now taking action.
On a year-over-year basis, prices remain softer across all categories. The composite benchmark is down 6.8% compared to March of last year. By property type, detached homes are down 8.2%, condos down 7.8%, and townhouses down 5.7%. And of course the price decrease percentages are higher than that when compared to the peak of 2022/2023.
For buyers, the broader market continues to offer favourable conditions. Overall inventory remains plentiful, and multifamily segments still provide negotiating power. However, the early signs of life in the detached market suggest that the window of maximum leverage may not stay open indefinitely.
For sellers, the message is becoming more nuanced. In the detached segment, with sales up and new listings down, those who price correctly may find more receptive buyers than they did in 2025. In the condo and townhouse segments, realistic pricing remains essential.
Looking ahead, there are worldwide factors. As Lis notes, the conflict in the Middle East is now putting upward pressure on bond yields and fixed mortgage rates. This could have a dampening effect on demand heading into the spring market; however, buyers who are paying attention are looking to buy.
Whether you’re a buyer wondering if the bottom is here or a seller trying to time your market entry, I'm happy to help. Understanding the differences between market segments and area variances is more important than ever. I am always happy to discuss what these trends mean for your specific situation. There's (almost) nothing I love more than talking about real estate!